Sri Lanka Covid deaths projected to reach a total of 20,000 in Sep ?

Sunday, 09 May 2021 - 14:16

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) an independent global health research center at the University of Washington has predicted based on its model that the total covid deaths could reach 20,000 by the end of September with a daily rate of 200 from mid June 2021 in Sri Lanka. 

There are some alarming numbers projected by IHME on Sri Lanka, we have seen the recent waves as well as the initial wave exceeding most of these models and projections for other countries, however, these numbers are also subject to change based on how careful the public would be as well as the decisions taken by the policy makers. 

The real value of the models would remain if it is taken seriously and lifestyle and health decisions are taken to arrest the numbers and mitigate the risks. Health sector response (Video)

We have seen an alarming increase in both the reported cases nearing 2,000 daily as well as the deaths that are now being reported in double digits with it recording the highest ever deaths in a day yesterday with 21 deaths.  

Every day we encounter and use mathematical models. From producing weather predictions for the week, to calculating a country’s GDP, to estimating the impact of vaccinations, models help us process, represent, and understand the data that describe the workings of the world around us.

At the highest level, a model is the generation of a mathematical representation of the real world. Events are the data points that go into the model (inputs), and relationships are what come out (outputs).

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME makes this information freely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about how to allocate resources to best improve population health.

Projection: Daily deaths reaching 200 in June 2021 (pls follow source site links for further details on these charts and numbers)

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Projection : Total deaths 20,876 by 1 Sep 2021
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* Hirunews is not involved in the data modelling or statistical analysis for the above.